Shrinking Forests under Warming: Evidence of Podocarpus parlatorei (pino del cerro) from the Subtropical Andes

We combined phylogeographic analysis and ENM techniques to study the effects of alternate cold and warm (i.e., glacial and interglacial) periods on the subtropical montane cold-tolerant conifer Podocarpus parlatorei from Yungas forests of the central Andes. Two distribution models based on 8 bioclimatic variables indicate a rather continuous distribution during cooling, while under warming remained within stable, yet increasingly fragmented, areas. Although no major range shifts are expected with warming, long-lasting persistence of cold-hardy taxa inhabiting subtropical mountains may include in situ and ex situ conservation actions particularly toward southern (colder) areas.